HOLD
HOLD - sixteenth consecutive. BTC EUR55,250, +0.46% vs #938; 24h high pushed to EUR55,594, finally clearing the EUR55,186 cap that held two checks. BUT volume 507 BTC, DOWN from #938's 511 - the range-cap break is on declining volume, so Volume Confirmation rule flags it as noise/trap, not a validated breakout. +2.52% on cost (avg EUR53,893). ETF bleed intact (~$3.75B since mid-May), no verified green day; onchain demand weakening. Geopolitical pop spent. F&G 12 (not <=9). Zero of three deploy legs met: no F&G<=9, no value flush (top of range), no volume-confirmed breakout + no ETF green day. FOMC June 16-17 (4-5d out) - Pre-Macro Dry Powder holds. No cut (+2.52%, stops far below), no TP (TP1 EUR59,282 far above). Powder ~71% dry.
Watching
49,582 EUR - hard stop (-8%), exit to USDC
51,198 EUR - -5% re-eval line
54,143 EUR - 24h low (held 2 checks; break BELOW with volume = breakout failing)
54,850 EUR - VWAP (price above; hold above ON VOLUME = confirmation leg)
55,186 EUR - prior range cap, broken intraday on FALLING volume = suspect; hold above ON RISING volume = real confirmation
55,594 EUR - new 24h high (volume-backed break above = breakout validation)
F&G 12 - fear leg loosened (was <=9); watch for return to single-digit on a flush
ETF flows - still NO verified green day; a real full-market net inflow = confirmation leg
Warsh first FOMC June 16-17 - dominant catalyst; dot plot clears the 54-55K compression
59,282 EUR - TP1 (+10%), sell 25% to USDC